2011 has come to a close, and it is time again to stick my neck out and make some predictions about what I think will happen in the mobile industry in the coming year.
- Either Google or Apple will become a carrier. They will either outright buy an existing carrier or become an MVNO. The advantage will be that they will be a data only carrier and will be able to undercut other carriers. The objective is not to make money on the service, but in selling more devices.
- Windows Phone will gain momentum and pass BlackBerry in world marketshare to take a very distant third place.
- RIM will have a change of senior management and will stop producing handsets. They will become a mobile services company. Services like BBM will become available on other platforms.
- Apple will continue to dominate the tablet market. Amazon will own the second largest share and many other tablet manufacturers will retreat from the business.
- Smartphones will make up 70% of the US subscriber base by the end of 2012.
- Apple will take advantage of Siri technology by enabling it on other devices including iPad, Mac, and Apple TV.
- NFC will be in the majority of new Android phones because Google will force phone makers to inlcude NFC in new smartphones to get the Google branding. Despite this, Digital Wallets won’t gain traction in 2012.
We’ll check back in a year to see how well I did!